2026 midterm forecast
Montana House
All 2 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
0 D · 2 R
of 2
Seats today
0 D · 2 R
Statewide House vote
R+17.4
>99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 23% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Montana's two House seats look firmly Republican
Republicans are expected to hold on to both of Montana's House seats. MT-01 is the closer of the two, with Republicans ahead by 6.6 points, while their lead in MT-02 is 29.3.
Education draws the sharpest line. College graduates are the only group that tilts Democratic, by 9.2 points, while voters without a degree back Republicans by 34.8. The gender gap is also wide, with men favoring Republicans by 34.2 points and women by 1.2.
The race
Montana elects 2 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 | Samuel Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R) | R | R+6.6 | 79% R | Lean R |
| MT-02 | Brian Miller (D) vs. Troy Downing (R) | R | R+29.3 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.