2026 midterm forecast
Montana Senate
Seth Bodnar (I) vs. Kurt Alme (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
96%
Kurt Alme
Projected margin
R+9.7
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
11%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Alme is the favorite for Montana's open Senate seat
Republican Sen. Daines is not running, which leaves his seat open. Alme, the Republican, is favored to keep it for his party against Bodnar, an independent.
Older voters are Alme's strongest group, backing him by 22.6 points, while Bodnar leads voters 18–29 by 7.0. Bodnar also gets less help from Harris voters than Alme gets from Trump voters, with 62% of 2024 Harris voters behind him and 82% of Trump voters behind Alme.
The race
- Independent
- Seth Bodnar (I)
- Republican
- Kurt Alme (R)
- Also on the ballot
- Alani Bankhead (D), Kyle Austin (Libertarian)
- Seat held by
- Steve Daines (R), not running
- Note
- Daines retired; Tester-backed independent Bodnar plus Democrat Bankhead
Republican Kurt Alme, independent Seth Bodnar, Democrat Alani Bankhead and Libertarian Kyle Austin are on the ballot for the seat that opened when Republican Sen. Steve Daines withdrew. Alme, a former U.S. attorney endorsed by Daines and President Trump, wants to rein in federal spending and stresses border security. Bodnar, an Army veteran and former University of Montana president backed by former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, focuses on housing costs and says only an independent can fix a broken system. Bankhead, an Air Force veteran, backs universal health care, taxing the wealthy and a moratorium on artificial intelligence data centers.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.BodnarAlme
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.