2026 midterm forecast
Vermont governor
Amanda Janoo (D) vs. Phil Scott (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
77%
Phil Scott
Projected margin
R+4.4
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
8%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Vermont's Republican governor holds a modest lead over Janoo
Scott, a Republican, is defending the governorship, and his edge over Janoo, the Democrat, is small enough to leave the race unsettled.
Scott draws 26% of 2024 Harris voters as well as 98% of Trump voters. Age also divides voters, with Janoo ahead by 12.6 points among voters 18–29 and Scott up 12.1 among those 65 and older.
The race
- Democrat
- Amanda Janoo (D)
- Republican
- Phil Scott (R)
- Seat held by
- Phil Scott (R), running
- Note
- Majority required, or the legislature decides
Republican Gov. Phil Scott wants a sixth two-year term, and his opponent is Amanda Janoo, an economist and first-time candidate running as the Democratic/Progressive nominee. Scott opposes new taxes and has pushed for education reform, including school consolidation, and more housing. Janoo has proposed free universal primary care funded by a surcharge on incomes above $250,000 and higher taxes on second homes and short-term rentals.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.JanooScott
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.