2026 midterm forecast
Vermont House
The at-large House seat
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win the seat
>99%
Becca Balint (D)
Seat margin
D+40.2
Statewide House vote
D+40.0
>99% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 13% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Vermont's lone House seat is not in doubt for Democrats
There is little suspense in Vermont's at-large district, which Democrats hold and lead by 40.2 points. They are expected to keep it.
Democrats lead every demographic group, but education still divides voters. College graduates back Democrats by 62.0 points, while voters without a degree do so by 22.3. By area, suburban voters are the most Democratic, at 60.2 points.
The race
Vermont elects one member of the U.S. House, at large. The seat is held by Becca Balint (D).
On the ballot: Becca Balint (D) vs. Gerald Malloy (R).
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT-AL | Becca Balint (D) vs. Gerald Malloy (R) | D | D+40.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.