2026 midterm forecast
Hawaii governor
Josh Green (D) vs. Gary Cordery (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Josh Green
Projected margin
D+30.0
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
22%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Green is cruising toward reelection in Hawaii
Hawaii's governor's race is not competitive. Green, a Democrat, is running for another term, and Republican Cordery trails in every group of voters.
Green runs strongest among the young. Voters 18 to 29 back him by 42.4 points, compared with 17.9 among those 45 to 64. Women favor him by 39.0 points and men by 23.7.
The race
- Democrat
- Josh Green (D)
- Republican
- Gary Cordery (R)
- Seat held by
- Josh Green (D), running
Democratic Gov. Josh Green, a physician, is seeking a second term with running mate Derek Kawakami. His agenda includes building affordable housing, expanding kauhale homeless villages, tax relief and lowering electricity bills. Republican Gary Cordery, a general contractor running with Daniel Anthony, has campaigned on the cost of living, faster building permits and government transparency. No debates have been held.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.GreenCordery
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.