2026 midterm forecast
Hawaii House
All 2 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
2 D · 0 R
of 2
Seats today
2 D · 0 R
Statewide House vote
D+31.8
>99% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 21% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Hawaii's two House seats appear out of reach for Republicans
Both of Hawaii's seats are in Democratic hands, and neither looks at risk. HI-02 is the closer of the two, and even there Democrats lead by 28.8 points.
Rural voters favor Democrats slightly more than those in cities and suburbs, by 37.2 points. Women back the party by 41.0, against 27.2 among men.
The race
Hawaii elects 2 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Democrats.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HI-01 | Ed Case (D) vs. Adriel Lam (R) | D | D+35.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| HI-02 | Jill Tokuda (D) vs. Brenton Awa (R) | D | D+28.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.