2026 midterm forecast
New Jersey Senate
Cory Booker (D) vs. Justin Murphy (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Cory Booker
Projected margin
D+20.9
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
17%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Booker is cruising toward another Senate term in New Jersey
Booker, who holds the seat, is a heavy favorite against Murphy, a Republican, and the race is not expected to be close.
Rural New Jersey is Booker's weakest ground, but he still leads there by 5.7 points. His margins are far larger among college graduates, at 35.8 points, and women, at 28.8. Murphy holds just 81% of 2024 Trump voters.
The race
- Democrat
- Cory Booker (D)
- Republican
- Justin Murphy (R)
- Seat held by
- Cory Booker (D), running
Republican Justin Murphy, an attorney, Navy veteran and former Tabernacle deputy mayor, is challenging Democratic Sen. Cory Booker, who is seeking a third full term. Booker has campaigned on affordability and a plan to make the first $75,000 of household income tax-free, and he opposes Trump's tariffs and wants to end the Iran war. Murphy wants tax cuts, including a flat tax, and backs domestic energy production, school choice and the Iran war.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.BookerMurphy
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.