2026 midterm forecast
New Jersey House
All 12 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
10 D · 2 R
of 12
Seats today
9 D · 3 R
Statewide House vote
D+18.8
>99% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 20% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
NJ-07 is the one New Jersey House seat projected to flip
Democrats hold nine of New Jersey's 12 House seats and are expected to add NJ-07, a Republican-held district where they lead by 9.4 points. That would give them 10. The state's closest race is NJ-02, where Republicans are ahead by 1.3.
Democrats lead in every group, but the size of the lead varies widely. It reaches 45.2 points among voters 18–29 and falls to 10.8 among those 65 and older and 5.2 in rural areas.
The race
New Jersey elects 12 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 9 Democrats and 3 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ-01 | Donald Norcross (D) vs. Damon Galdo (R) | D | D+28.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NJ-02 | Zack Mullock (D) vs. Jeff Van Drew (R) | R | R+1.3 | 56% R | Toss-up |
| NJ-03 | Herbert C. Conaway (D) vs. Michael McGuire (R) | D | D+20.5 | 99% D | Safe D |
| NJ-04 | Rachel Peace (D) vs. Chris Smith (R) | R | R+19.9 | 99% R | Safe R |
| NJ-05 | Josh Gottheimer (D) vs. Sean Kirrane (R) | D | D+16.2 | 97% D | Safe D |
| NJ-06 | Frank Pallone (D) vs. Hillary Herzig (R) | D | D+19.8 | 99% D | Safe D |
| NJ-07 | Rebecca Bennett (D) vs. Thomas Kean (R) | R | D+9.4 | 86% D | Likely DFlip |
| NJ-08 | Robert Menendez (D) | D | Decided (D) | — | Decided |
| NJ-09 | Nellie Pou (D) vs. Rosemary Pino (R) | D | D+18.4 | 98% D | Safe D |
| NJ-10 | LaMonica McIver (D) vs. Carmen Bucco (R) | D | D+64.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| NJ-11 | Analilia Mejia (D) vs. Joe Hathaway (R) | D | D+19.8 | 99% D | Safe D |
| NJ-12 | Adam Hamawy (D) vs. Gregg Mele (R) | D | D+37.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.