2026 midterm forecast
Ohio Senate special election
Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
69%
Sherrod Brown
Projected margin
D+2.8
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
9%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Brown has the edge over Sen. Husted in Ohio's special election
Husted, the Republican who holds the seat, is running in a special election and trails Brown, a Democrat. A Brown win would flip the seat, though his lead could still slip away.
The race divides Ohio along geographic lines. Brown leads urban voters by 30.3 points and the suburbs by 10.4, while Husted runs 22.9 points ahead in rural areas. Men also favor Husted, by 5.4 points.
The race
- Democrat
- Sherrod Brown (D)
- Republican
- Jon Husted (R)
- Seat held by
- Jon Husted (R), running
This special election is for the rest of JD Vance's term. Republican Sen. Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor appointed in 2025, is running against Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former three-term senator who lost in 2024. Husted has stressed immigration, inflation and Brown's decades in Washington. Brown talks about grocery, gas and health costs and what he calls a rigged system.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.BrownHusted
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.