2026 midterm forecast

Ohio

Three races on Ohio's November 3 ballot: a Senate special election, the governor and all 15 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Ohio Senate special election

Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)

Chance to win

69%

Brown

Projected margin

D+2.8

Brown has the edge over Sen. Husted in Ohio's special election

Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

Chance to win

73%

Acton

Projected margin

D+3.4

Acton is positioned to take Ohio's open governor's seat for Democrats

All 15 House seats

Expected seats

7 D · 8 R

Statewide House vote

D+1.8

Ohio Democrats are expected to gain House seats under a new map