2026 midterm forecast
Ohio House
All 15 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
7 D · 8 R
of 15
Seats today
5 D · 10 R
Statewide House vote
D+1.8
61% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 11% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Ohio Democrats are expected to gain House seats under a new map
Under Ohio's new congressional map, Democrats are expected to win seven of the 15 House seats, up from five today. They are favored in the Republican-held OH-07, OH-10 and OH-15. OH-07 is the tightest race, with Democrats ahead by 1.0 point, followed by OH-15 at 1.9 and OH-09 at 3.3.
Rural voters are the Republican base, backing the party by 25.1 points, against a 29.3-point Democratic lead in urban areas. Men lean Republican by 6.7 points, while women favor Democrats by 15.7.
The race
Ohio elects 15 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 5 Democrats and 10 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-01 | Greg Landsman (D) vs. Eric Conroy (R) | D | D+7.6 | 81% D | Likely D |
| OH-02 | Jen Mazzuckelli (D) vs. David Taylor (R) | R | R+31.3 | >99% R | Safe R |
| OH-03 | Joyce Beatty (D) vs. Cleophus Dulaney (R) | D | D+53.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| OH-04 | Joshua Kolasinski (D) vs. Jim Jordan (R) | R | R+28.0 | >99% R | Safe R |
| OH-05 | Brian Shaver (D) vs. Bob Latta (R) | R | R+7.7 | 82% R | Likely R |
| OH-06 | Elizabeth Kirtley (D) vs. Michael Rulli (R) | R | R+21.6 | 99% R | Safe R |
| OH-07 | Brian Poindexter (D) vs. Max Miller (R) | R | D+1.0 | 55% D | Toss-upFlip |
| OH-08 | Vanessa Enoch (D) vs. Warren Davidson (R) | R | R+6.3 | 77% R | Lean R |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin (R) | D | D+3.3 | 65% D | Lean D |
| OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker (D) vs. Mike Turner (R) | R | D+4.5 | 70% D | Lean DFlip |
| OH-11 | Shontel Brown (D) vs. Mike Kirchner (R) | D | D+70.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| OH-12 | Jerrad Christian (D) vs. Troy Balderson (R) | R | R+18.2 | 98% R | Safe R |
| OH-13 | Emilia Sykes (D) vs. Carey Coleman (R) | D | D+17.4 | 98% D | Safe D |
| OH-14 | Maria Jukic (D) vs. David Joyce (R) | R | R+5.7 | 75% R | Lean R |
| OH-15 | Don Leonard (D) vs. Mike Carey (R) | R | D+1.9 | 59% D | Toss-upFlip |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.