2026 midterm forecast
Ohio governor
Amy Acton (D) vs. Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
73%
Amy Acton
Projected margin
D+3.4
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
9%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Acton is positioned to take Ohio's open governor's seat for Democrats
Gov. DeWine, a Republican, is not running, and Acton, a Democrat, leads Ramaswamy in the race to replace him. Her lead is modest, but a win would give Democrats the office.
Gender and age split the vote. Acton leads women by 18.4 points, and Ramaswamy leads men by 5.7. Ramaswamy's best age group is voters 65 and older, whom he leads by 9.2 points, while Acton is up 19.6 among those 30 to 44.
The race
- Democrat
- Amy Acton (D)
- Republican
- Vivek Ramaswamy (R)
- Seat held by
- Mike DeWine (R), not running
Gov. Mike DeWine is term-limited, so the seat is open. Democrat Amy Acton, a physician and former state health director, has made a "working families tax cut," electric bills and senior property-tax relief the focus of her campaign. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur and 2024 presidential candidate, wants to roll back property taxes and phase out the income tax.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.ActonRamaswamy
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.