2026 midterm forecast
Delaware Senate
Chris Coons (D) vs. Michael Katz (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Chris Coons
Projected margin
D+20.6
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
19%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Delaware's Senate race shapes up as an easy hold for Coons
Democrats look set to keep Coons' seat. He is seeking another term and holds a wide advantage over Republican Katz.
Among age groups, the youngest back Coons most strongly, by 37.7 points, and his margin narrows in each older group, to 11.2 among those 65 and older. Voters without a degree are closer still, favoring him by only 4.7.
The race
- Democrat
- Chris Coons (D)
- Republican
- Michael Katz (R)
- Seat held by
- Chris Coons (D), running
Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, in office since 2010, faces Republican Michael Katz, a physician and former Democratic state senator. Coons cites his experience and bipartisanship, and he has criticized tariffs and defended the Affordable Care Act. Katz focuses on affordability, a "clean slate" overhaul of health care and balanced budgets. They met at an Oct. 22 candidate forum.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.CoonsKatz
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.