2026 midterm forecast
Delaware House
The at-large House seat
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win the seat
>99%
Sarah McBride (D)
Seat margin
D+20.8
Statewide House vote
D+21.4
>99% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 18% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Delaware's lone House seat looks safely Democratic
Democrats lead Delaware's at-large House race by 20.8 points, and the seat, which they already hold, is not in doubt.
Men are far less Democratic than women, favoring the party by 9.6 points to 34.8. The education gap is bigger, with Democrats up 45.4 points among college graduates and 5.5 among voters without a degree.
The race
Delaware elects one member of the U.S. House, at large. The seat is held by Sarah McBride (D).
On the ballot: Sarah McBride (D) vs. Joseph Arminio (R).
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE-AL | Sarah McBride (D) vs. Joseph Arminio (R) | D | D+20.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.