2026 midterm forecast
West Virginia Senate
Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Shelley Moore Capito
Projected margin
R+38.3
±13 points, 95% range
Undecided
27%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Capito is coasting toward reelection in West Virginia
Capito, the Republican incumbent, faces Anderson, a Democrat, and Wilson of the Constitution Party. Her lead is wide enough that the seat does not appear to be in question.
Capito's margin narrows to 9.4 points among college graduates but reaches 48.3 among voters without a degree. She also leads by 45.2 points in rural areas.
The race
- Democrat
- Rachel Fetty Anderson (D)
- Republican
- Shelley Moore Capito (R)
- Also on the ballot
- S. Marshall Wilson (Constitution Party)
- Seat held by
- Shelley Moore Capito (R), running
In her bid for a third term, Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee, faces Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson, a Morgantown attorney and former city council member. Capito points to her committee posts, tax relief in the 2025 federal tax-and-spending law and energy permitting reform. Fetty Anderson says Capito's votes favor donors and corporate interests, criticizes health coverage losses under that law and ties fuel prices to the Iran war and tariffs.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.AndersonCapito
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.