2026 midterm forecast
Illinois Senate
Juliana Stratton (D) vs. Don Tracy (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
99%
Juliana Stratton
Projected margin
D+14.6
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
15%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Stratton has a clear path to Durbin's open Senate seat
Durbin is not running again, which leaves the seat open. Stratton is favored to hold it for Democrats, with Republican Tracy well behind.
The gender gap is wide. Stratton leads women by 23.3 points but men by only 9.7. Tracy's support is strongest in rural areas, at 26.4 points, and Stratton's widest lead is with urban voters, at 44.3.
The race
- Democrat
- Juliana Stratton (D)
- Republican
- Don Tracy (R)
- Seat held by
- Dick Durbin (D), not running
Sen. Dick Durbin is retiring, which opens the seat. Democratic Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton supports a $25 federal minimum wage, Medicare for All and abolishing ICE, and she opposes Trump's policies. Republican Don Tracy, a former state party chairman, focuses on lowering energy costs through domestic production, immigration enforcement and tax cuts. They debated once, on Oct. 20.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.StrattonTracy
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.