2026 midterm forecast
Illinois House
All 17 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
14 D · 3 R
of 17
Seats today
14 D · 3 R
Statewide House vote
D+17.2
>99% D · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 15% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Illinois Democrats are expected to hold their 14 House seats
Nothing in the Illinois House delegation is projected to change. Democrats hold 14 of the 17 seats and Republicans hold three, and the closest races, IL-14 and IL-08, still favor Democrats by about 10 points.
Among college graduates the Democratic edge is 32.4 points, and it thins to 7.1 among voters without a degree. Republicans run ahead only in rural areas, by 27.8 points.
The race
Illinois elects 17 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 14 Democrats and 3 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL-01 | Jonathan Jackson (D) vs. Christian Maxwell (R) | D | D+37.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IL-02 | Donna Miller (D) vs. Mike Noack (R) | D | D+41.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IL-03 | Delia Ramirez (D) vs. Angel Oakley (R) | D | D+39.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IL-04 | Patty Garcia (D) vs. Lupe Castillo (R) | D | D+34.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IL-05 | Mike Quigley (D) vs. Tom Hanson (R) | D | D+42.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IL-06 | Sean Casten (D) vs. Niki Conforti (R) | D | D+13.3 | 95% D | Likely D |
| IL-07 | La Shawn Ford (D) vs. Chad Koppie (R) | D | D+71.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IL-08 | Melissa Bean (D) vs. Jennifer Davis (R) | D | D+10.3 | 89% D | Likely D |
| IL-09 | Daniel K. Biss (D) vs. John Elleson (R) | D | D+41.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IL-10 | Brad Schneider (D) vs. Carl Lambrecht (R) | D | D+25.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IL-11 | Bill Foster (D) vs. Jeffrey Walter (R) | D | D+14.8 | 96% D | Safe D |
| IL-12 | Julie Fortier (D) vs. Mike Bost (R) | R | R+38.6 | >99% R | Safe R |
| IL-13 | Nikki Budzinski (D) vs. Jeff Wilson (R) | D | D+16.9 | 97% D | Safe D |
| IL-14 | Lauren Underwood (D) vs. James Marter (R) | D | D+10.1 | 88% D | Likely D |
| IL-15 | Jennifer Todd (D) vs. Mary Miller (R) | R | R+34.7 | >99% R | Safe R |
| IL-16 | Paul Nolley (D) vs. Darin LaHood (R) | R | R+16.7 | 97% R | Safe R |
| IL-17 | Eric Sorensen (D) vs. Dillan Vancil (R) | D | D+12.5 | 92% D | Likely D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.