2026 midterm forecast
Illinois governor
JB Pritzker (D) vs. Darren Bailey (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
JB Pritzker
Projected margin
D+20.0
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
13%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Pritzker holds a 20-point lead in his Illinois reelection bid
Pritzker is running for reelection as the Democratic incumbent, and his lead over Republican Bailey leaves little room for an upset.
Geography drives the split. Pritzker wins urban voters by 46.6 points and the suburbs by 13, while Bailey takes rural areas by 26.2, the only group he carries. Women back Pritzker by 24.5 points and men by 12.
The race
- Democrat
- JB Pritzker (D)
- Republican
- Darren Bailey (R)
- Seat held by
- JB Pritzker (D), running
Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker is seeking a third term in a rematch with former state Sen. Darren Bailey. Pritzker has pushed for ending the state grocery tax and doubling the child tax credit, and he opposes Trump's agenda. Bailey wants to repeal the SAFE-T Act, which ended cash bail, and has called for capping property tax bills and auditing state spending. The two met in one forum, on Oct. 13.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.PritzkerBailey
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.