2026 midterm forecast

Illinois

Three races on Illinois's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 17 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Illinois Senate

Juliana Stratton (D) vs. Don Tracy (R)

Chance to win

99%

Stratton

Projected margin

D+14.6

Stratton has a clear path to Durbin's open Senate seat

JB Pritzker (D) vs. Darren Bailey (R)

Chance to win

>99%

Pritzker

Projected margin

D+20.0

Pritzker holds a 20-point lead in his Illinois reelection bid

All 17 House seats

Expected seats

14 D · 3 R

Statewide House vote

D+17.2

Illinois Democrats are expected to hold their 14 House seats