2026 midterm forecast
Pennsylvania governor
Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Stacy Garrity (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Josh Shapiro
Projected margin
D+22.8
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
8%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Shapiro leads Garrity by nearly 23 points in Pennsylvania
Shapiro, a Democrat, is seeking another term and faces little danger from Garrity, a Republican. He is expected to keep the office for his party.
Shapiro even draws 9% of 2024 Trump voters, while 85% of them back Garrity, and every Harris voter backs Shapiro. The divide between cities and the countryside is stark, with Shapiro up 53.8 points in urban areas and Garrity up 24.8 in rural ones.
The race
- Democrat
- Josh Shapiro (D)
- Republican
- Stacy Garrity (R)
- Seat held by
- Josh Shapiro (D), running
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, elected in 2022 by 15 points (56.5% to 41.7%), faces Republican Stacy Garrity, a retired Army Reserve colonel in her second term as state treasurer after winning statewide in 2020 and 2024. Shapiro is endorsed by the state AFL-CIO, building-trades unions, Fraternal Order of Police lodges, the state troopers' association and firefighters, and he is campaigning on increased school funding, data-center rules requiring local approval, a $15 minimum wage and opposition to President Trump. Garrity, endorsed by President Trump, the state Republican Party and anti-abortion groups, wants a data-center pause, school choice, government transparency and an end to property taxes for seniors, veterans and first responders. They debated once, on Oct. 7.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.ShapiroGarrity
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.