2026 midterm forecast
Pennsylvania House
All 17 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
10 D · 7 R
of 17
Seats today
7 D · 10 R
Statewide House vote
D+8.5
91% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 11% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Pennsylvania's House delegation is on track to swing to Democrats
Pennsylvania's delegation is expected to go from a 10-7 Republican edge to a 10-7 Democratic one. Democrats are favored to take PA-01, PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10 from Republicans. PA-08 is the tightest of those, with Democrats ahead by 1.4 points.
The urban-rural split runs deep. Urban voters favor Democrats by 52.5 points, and rural voters favor Republicans by 29.5. Men lean Republican by just 1.9, while women back Democrats by 23.9.
The race
Pennsylvania elects 17 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 7 Democrats and 10 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | Bob Harvie (D) vs. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | R | D+11.2 | 90% D | Likely DFlip |
| PA-02 | Brendan Boyle (D) vs. Jessica Arriaga (R) | D | D+46.1 | >99% D | Safe D |
| PA-03 | Christopher Rabb (D) vs. Mahoney (I) | D | D+88.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| PA-04 | Madeleine Dean (D) vs. Aurora Stuski (R) | D | D+24.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon (D) vs. Nick Manganaro (R) | D | D+37.9 | >99% D | Safe D |
| PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan (D) vs. Marty Young (R) | D | D+21.2 | 99% D | Safe D |
| PA-07 | Bob Brooks (D) vs. Ryan Mackenzie (R) | R | D+5.2 | 73% D | Lean DFlip |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti (D) vs. Rob Bresnahan (R) | R | D+1.4 | 57% D | Toss-upFlip |
| PA-09 | Rachel Wallace (D) vs. Dan Meuser (R) | R | R+25.0 | >99% R | Safe R |
| PA-10 | Janelle Stelson (D) vs. Scott Perry (R) | R | D+6.9 | 79% D | Lean DFlip |
| PA-11 | Nancy Mannion (D) vs. Lloyd Smucker (R) | R | R+12.8 | 93% R | Likely R |
| PA-12 | Summer Lee (D) vs. James Hayes (R) | D | D+32.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| PA-13 | Beth Farnham (D) vs. John Joyce (R) | R | R+36.4 | >99% R | Safe R |
| PA-14 | Alan Bradstock (D) vs. Guy Reschenthaler (R) | R | R+22.7 | >99% R | Safe R |
| PA-15 | Ray Bilger (D) vs. Glenn Thompson (R) | R | R+26.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
| PA-16 | Justin Wagner (D) vs. Mike Kelly (R) | R | R+15.0 | 96% R | Safe R |
| PA-17 | Chris Deluzio (D) vs. Tony Guy (R) | D | D+18.8 | 99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.