2026 midterm forecast
Pennsylvania
Two races on Pennsylvania's November 3 ballot: the governor and all 17 House seats.
Forecast published October 30, 2026
Pennsylvania governor
Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Stacy Garrity (R)
Chance to win
>99%
Shapiro
Projected margin
D+22.8
Shapiro leads Garrity by nearly 23 points in Pennsylvania
Read the forecastPennsylvania House
All 17 House seats
Expected seats
10 D · 7 R
Statewide House vote
D+8.5
Pennsylvania's House delegation is on track to swing to Democrats
Read the forecast