2026 midterm forecast
Maryland governor
Wes Moore (D) vs. Dan Cox (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Wes Moore
Projected margin
D+36.0
±12 points, 95% range
Undecided
16%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Cox's rural edge is not enough against Moore in Maryland
Moore, the Democratic governor, is up for another term and well clear of Republican Cox. Rural voters are the only group Cox carries, by 9.2 points.
Moore's biggest margins come from voters under 45. He leads by 60.6 points among 18- to 29-year-olds and by 61.2 among those 30 to 44, and his edge falls to 24.6 points with voters 45 to 64.
The race
- Democrat
- Wes Moore (D)
- Republican
- Dan Cox (R)
- Seat held by
- Wes Moore (D), running
Republican Dan Cox, a former state delegate who won the June 23 GOP primary over Ed Hale, is back for a rematch with Democratic Gov. Wes Moore, who is seeking a second term. Moore has campaigned on middle-class tax cuts and falling violent crime and ties Cox to President Trump. Cox has pledged not to raise taxes or fees and blames Moore for a projected state budget deficit.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.MooreCox
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.