2026 midterm forecast
Maryland House
All 8 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
7 D · 1 R
of 8
Seats today
7 D · 1 R
Statewide House vote
D+38.3
>99% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 16% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Maryland's 7-1 Democratic House split looks set to hold
Democrats hold seven of Maryland's eight House seats, a split that should carry through the election. MD-01, the lone Republican seat, is the tightest race, with Republicans up 7.7 points, and Democrats lead by 10.6 in MD-06.
Where voters live matters most. Democrats lead by 61.1 points in urban areas and by 41 in the suburbs. Rural voters are the exception, leaning Republican by 3.6.
The race
Maryland elects 8 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 7 Democrats and 1 Republican.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD-01 | Dan Schwartz (D) vs. Andrew Harris (R) | R | R+7.7 | 82% R | Likely R |
| MD-02 | John Olszewski (D) vs. Dave Wallace (R) | D | D+30.3 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MD-03 | Sarah Elfreth (D) vs. Bernard Flowers (R) | D | D+34.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MD-04 | Glenn Ivey (D) vs. George McDermott (R) | D | D+82.5 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MD-05 | Adrian Boafo (D) vs. Chris Chaffee (R) | D | D+42.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MD-06 | April McClain Delaney (D) vs. Robin Ficker (R) | D | D+10.6 | 90% D | Likely D |
| MD-07 | Kweisi Mfume (D) vs. Scott Collier (R) | D | D+68.6 | >99% D | Safe D |
| MD-08 | Jamie Raskin (D) vs. Cheryl Riley (R) | D | D+64.4 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.