2026 midterm forecast
Kansas governor
Cindy Holscher (D) vs. Ty Masterson (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
58%
Ty Masterson
Projected margin
R+1.1
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
14%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Masterson is narrowly favored to flip the Kansas governor's office
Kelly, a Democrat, is not running, which leaves the governor's office open, and the race to replace her is close to even. Masterson has a slight edge over Holscher, and if it lasts, the seat would flip to Republicans.
The race splits by age. Holscher leads among voters younger than 45, including by 25.7 points with those under 30, and Masterson leads among everyone older. Rural voters give him a 27.9-point cushion.
The race
- Democrat
- Cindy Holscher (D)
- Republican
- Ty Masterson (R)
- Seat held by
- Laura Kelly (D), not running
Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited, and Republican Ty Masterson and Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher are competing for the open seat. Masterson, the Trump-endorsed state Senate president, is running on limiting local property-tax increases and literacy reforms, and he opposes Medicaid expansion. Holscher has called for fully funding special education, expanding Medicaid and pausing new data centers.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.HolscherMasterson
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.