2026 midterm forecast
Kansas House
All 4 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
1 D · 3 R
of 4
Seats today
1 D · 3 R
Statewide House vote
R+7.4
87% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 19% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
Republicans look set to keep three of four Kansas House seats
Kansas sends three Republicans and one Democrat to the House, and that balance is expected to hold. KS-02 is the most competitive district, leaning Republican by 11.2 points, and Democrats lead by 15 points in KS-03, their one seat.
Men favor Republicans by 13.2 points, while women lean Democratic by 3.6. The age split is sharper, with voters under 45 leaning Democratic and those 45 to 64 backing Republicans by 23 points.
The race
Kansas elects 4 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS-01 | Lauren Reinhold (D) vs. Tracey Mann (R) | R | R+24.5 | >99% R | Safe R |
| KS-02 | Don Coover (D) vs. Derek Schmidt (R) | R | R+11.2 | 91% R | Likely R |
| KS-03 | Sharice Davids (D) vs. Eric Jenkins (R) | D | D+15.0 | 96% D | Safe D |
| KS-04 | Katy Tyndell (D) vs. Ron Estes (R) | R | R+15.3 | 97% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.