2026 midterm forecast

Kansas

Three races on Kansas's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and all 4 House seats.

Forecast published October 30, 2026

Kansas Senate

Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R)

Chance to win

55%

Marshall

Projected margin

R+0.8

Marshall's Kansas Senate seat is up for grabs

Cindy Holscher (D) vs. Ty Masterson (R)

Chance to win

58%

Masterson

Projected margin

R+1.1

Masterson is narrowly favored to flip the Kansas governor's office

All 4 House seats

Expected seats

1 D · 3 R

Statewide House vote

R+7.4

Republicans look set to keep three of four Kansas House seats