2026 midterm forecast
Kansas Senate
Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
55%
Roger Marshall
Projected margin
R+0.8
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
18%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Marshall's Kansas Senate seat is up for grabs
Marshall is in a near tie with Democrat Hamilton as he seeks another term, and the Republican's edge is too small to count on. A modest shift either way could decide it.
Hamilton runs up a 25.5-point lead in urban areas and a smaller one in the suburbs, but Marshall answers with a 32.1-point margin among rural voters. Loyalty from 2024 is a little softer on the Republican side, with 90% of Trump voters behind Marshall and 98% of Harris voters behind Hamilton.
The race
- Democrat
- Adam Hamilton (D)
- Republican
- Roger Marshall (R)
- Seat held by
- Roger Marshall (R), running
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who is seeking a second term, backs Trump's tariffs and border policies and links his opponent to Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. Democrat Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of Leawood's Church of the Resurrection, calls himself an independent-minded Democrat, has pledged not to back Schumer as leader and wants to end the Iran war. Marshall and Hamilton have debated twice.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.HamiltonMarshall
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.