2026 midterm forecast
South Dakota governor
Dan Ahlers (D) vs. Larry Rhoden (R)
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win
>99%
Larry Rhoden
Projected margin
R+19.2
±11 points, 95% range
Undecided
13%
of likely voters
Two-party vote
Key insights
Rhoden looks secure in his bid to keep South Dakota's governorship
As the Republican governor, Rhoden is running to keep the job, and Ahlers, the Democrat, trails him in every demographic group.
College graduates are almost evenly split, with Rhoden ahead by just 0.5 points, while he leads voters without a degree by 36.3. The gender gap is nearly as stark, with men backing him by 39.1 points and women by 7.1.
The race
- Democrat
- Dan Ahlers (D)
- Republican
- Larry Rhoden (R)
- Seat held by
- Larry Rhoden (R), running
Democrat Dan Ahlers, a former legislator, is taking on Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden, who succeeded Kristi Noem in 2025. Rhoden has campaigned on this year's property tax cuts and a data-center law. Ahlers wants more state school funding to ease property taxes, free school lunches and a child care tax credit.
Campaign summary as of October 29, 2026.
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.AhlersRhoden
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.