2026 midterm forecast
South Dakota
Three races on South Dakota's November 3 ballot: the Senate, the governor and the at-large House seat.
Forecast published October 30, 2026
South Dakota Senate
Brian Bengs (I) vs. Mike Rounds (R)
Chance to win
>99%
Rounds
Projected margin
R+16.9
Rounds leads independent Bengs by 17 points in South Dakota
Read the forecastSouth Dakota governor
Dan Ahlers (D) vs. Larry Rhoden (R)
Chance to win
>99%
Rhoden
Projected margin
R+19.2
Rhoden looks secure in his bid to keep South Dakota's governorship
Read the forecastSouth Dakota House
The at-large House seat
Expected seats
0 D · 1 R
Statewide House vote
R+25.2
South Dakota's at-large House seat should stay in Republican hands
Read the forecast