2026 midterm forecast
Indiana House
All 9 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
2 D · 7 R
of 9
Seats today
2 D · 7 R
Statewide House vote
R+13.3
97% R · ±14 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 32% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
No Indiana House seat looks likely to change hands
Republicans have seven of Indiana's nine House seats to the Democrats' two, and no seat is projected to flip. IN-01 is the closest district, with Democrats ahead by 9.1 points, and IN-05 leans Republican by 11.5.
Education draws the sharpest line. College graduates favor Democrats by 14.3 points, while voters without a degree back Republicans by 27.7. A large share of voters have yet to pick a side.
The race
Indiana elects 9 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 2 Democrats and 7 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN-01 | Frank Mrvan (D) vs. Barb Regnitz (R) | D | D+9.1 | 85% D | Likely D |
| IN-02 | Jamee Decio (D) vs. Rudy Yakym (R) | R | R+20.5 | 99% R | Safe R |
| IN-03 | Kelly Thompson (D) vs. Marlin A. Stutzman (R) | R | R+27.0 | >99% R | Safe R |
| IN-04 | Drew Cox (D) vs. Jim Baird (R) | R | R+23.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
| IN-05 | J.D. Ford (D) vs. Victoria Spartz (R) | R | R+11.5 | 90% R | Likely R |
| IN-06 | Cynthia Wirth (D) vs. Jefferson Shreve (R) | R | R+31.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
| IN-07 | André Carson (D) vs. Patrick McAuley (R) | D | D+47.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| IN-08 | Mary Allen (D) vs. Mark Messmer (R) | R | R+32.7 | >99% R | Safe R |
| IN-09 | Brad Meyer (D) vs. Erin Houchin (R) | R | R+23.4 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.