2026 midterm forecast
Washington House
All 10 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Expected seats
8 D · 2 R
of 10
Seats today
8 D · 2 R
Statewide House vote
D+25.4
>99% D · ±12 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 17% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
No Washington House seats are projected to change hands
Washington's delegation is expected to stay at eight Democrats and two Republicans. The closest races are WA-03, where Democrats lead by 2.6 points, and WA-05, where Republicans are ahead by 3.7.
Democrats win urban voters by 47.7 points but rural voters by only 5.5. Education splits voters too, with college graduates favoring Democrats by 43.5 points and voters without a degree by 13.3.
The race
Washington elects 10 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 8 Democrats and 2 Republicans.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA-01 | Suzan DelBene (D) vs. Mary Silva (R) | D | D+37.7 | >99% D | Safe D |
| WA-02 | Rick Larsen (D) vs. Edwin H. Feller (R) | D | D+30.2 | >99% D | Safe D |
| WA-03 | Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D) vs. John Braun (R) | D | D+2.6 | 62% D | Lean D |
| WA-04 | John Duresky (D) vs. Amanda McKinney (R) | R | R+16.1 | 97% R | Safe R |
| WA-05 | Carmela Conroy (D) vs. Michael Baumgartner (R) | R | R+3.7 | 67% R | Lean R |
| WA-06 | Emily Randall (D) vs. Teresa Fox (R) | D | D+25.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| WA-07 | Pramila Jayapal (D) vs. Nirav Sheth (R) | D | D+84.8 | >99% D | Safe D |
| WA-08 | Kim Schrier (D) vs. Spencer Meline (R) | D | D+15.0 | 97% D | Safe D |
| WA-09 | D. Adam Smith (D) vs. Doug Basler (R) | D | D+50.0 | >99% D | Safe D |
| WA-10 | Marilyn Strickland (D) vs. Chris Chung (R) | D | D+23.4 | >99% D | Safe D |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.