2026 midterm forecast
North Dakota House
The at-large House seat
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
Chance to win the seat
>99%
Julie Fedorchak (R)
Seat margin
R+31.8
Statewide House vote
R+32.4
>99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 24% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
North Dakota's lone House seat looks safe for Republicans
North Dakota elects one at-large House member, and Republicans, who hold the seat, are heavy favorites to keep it. They lead in ND-AL by 31.8 points.
Urban voters are the only group leaning Democratic, and only by 3.3 points. Republicans win rural voters by 40.6 points and voters without a degree by 44.5. Even college graduates tilt Republican, by 6.5 points, and men favor the party by 42.4.
The race
North Dakota elects one member of the U.S. House, at large. The seat is held by Julie Fedorchak (R).
On the ballot: Trygve Hammer (D) vs. Julie Fedorchak (R).
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND-AL | Trygve Hammer (D) vs. Julie Fedorchak (R) | R | R+31.8 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.