2026 midterm forecast
Utah House
All 4 House seats
Forecast published October 30, 2026 · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Foresight forecast
New map for 2026Expected seats
1 D · 3 R
of 4
Seats today
0 D · 4 R
Statewide House vote
R+14.4
99% R · ±13 points, 95% range
Statewide two-party House vote · 28% of likely voters undecided
Key insights
UT-01 is set to flip to Democrats under Utah's new map
Republicans hold all four Utah seats, but under the new map Democrats lead UT-01 by 32.8 points and are expected to take it. No other district is close, with Republicans ahead by 23.9 in UT-02 and 27.0 in UT-04.
A large share of likely voters is still undecided. Rural voters favor Republicans by 46.9 points and voters without a degree by 32.9, while college graduates back Democrats by 14.7.
The race
Utah elects 4 members of the U.S. House. Today's delegation: 4 Republicans. The 2026 election uses a new congressional map.
District by district
Foresight's forecast for each district, as drawn for 2026.
| District | Candidates | Held by | Margin | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT-01 | Ben McAdams (D) vs. Riley Owen (R) | R | D+32.8 | >99% D | Safe DFlip |
| UT-02 | Peter Crosby (D) vs. Blake Moore (R) | R | R+23.9 | >99% R | Safe R |
| UT-03 | Kent Udell (D) vs. Celeste Maloy (R) | R | R+36.5 | >99% R | Safe R |
| UT-04 | Jonny Larsen (D) vs. Mike Kennedy (R) | R | R+27.0 | >99% R | Safe R |
Vote by group
Own vote of likely voters in each group, two-party margin.DemocratsRepublicans
Age
Gender
Education
Area
By county
Foresight's margin in each county.
County margins in points. Faded: fewer than 5 respondents. Blank: no respondents.
How this forecast is made: read the method.