2026 midterms
Foresight vs. Silver Bulletin: how the forecasts did
Foresight picked the winner in 419 of the 436 races called so far, and Silver Bulletin in 427. Silver Bulletin's vote shares were closer to the results, 3.2 points off per race on average where ours were 3.8 points off. We also check both against Polymarket and Kalshi as they stood when we published.
Results as of 8:48 AM EST on November 4. A race counts once it is called. Foresight: forecast published October 30, 2026. Silver Bulletin: FLIPR (Deluxe), November 2, 2026 update. Markets: prices on October 30 at 7:02 PM EDT.
Called right and missed
Called races are in the winner's color, and races not called yet are grey. Switch between the forecasts and the markets to see each one's misses striped.
Hover a state for the count and the forecast, click it for the race post.Tap a state for its race post.
Winners picked
We picked more winners in governor's races (32 to 31). Silver Bulletin picked more in Senate races (32 to 30) and House seats (364 to 357).
| Foresight | Silver Bulletin | |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | 30 of 33 (91%) | 32 of 33 (97%) |
| Governors | 32 of 33 (97%) | 31 of 33 (94%) |
| House | 357 of 370 (96%) | 364 of 370 (98%) |
| All races | 419 of 436 (96%) | 427 of 436 (98%) |
The table below keeps only the close races, the called races where either forecast gave the underdog at least a 15% chance to win.
| Foresight | Silver Bulletin | |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | 5 of 8 (63%) | 7 of 8 (88%) |
| Governors | 9 of 10 (90%) | 8 of 10 (80%) |
| House | 36 of 49 (73%) | 43 of 49 (88%) |
Against the prediction markets
Prediction markets put a price on each candidate, which reads as a chance to win. We took each market's favorite at the moment we published our forecast and scored it the same way. Markets don't list every race, so each table compares the forecasts on the called races that market listed.
Polymarket
| Races listed | Polymarket | Foresight | Silver Bulletin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 33 | 31 of 33 (94%) | 30 of 33 (91%) | 32 of 33 (97%) |
| Governors | 32 | 31 of 32 (97%) | 31 of 32 (97%) | 30 of 32 (94%) |
| House | 370 | 365 of 370 (99%) | 357 of 370 (96%) | 364 of 370 (98%) |
| All races | 435 | 427 of 435 (98%) | 418 of 435 (96%) | 426 of 435 (98%) |
Kalshi
| Races listed | Kalshi | Foresight | Silver Bulletin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 32 | 30 of 32 (94%) | 29 of 32 (91%) | 31 of 32 (97%) |
| Governors | 33 | 32 of 33 (97%) | 32 of 33 (97%) | 31 of 33 (94%) |
| House | 102 | 101 of 102 (99%) | 96 of 102 (94%) | 100 of 102 (98%) |
| All races | 167 | 163 of 167 (98%) | 157 of 167 (94%) | 162 of 167 (97%) |
Polymarket's favorites won 427 of the 435 called races it listed. Silver Bulletin picked 426 of those winners and we picked 418. Kalshi listed 167 of the called races, and its favorites won 163 of them, to 162 for Silver Bulletin and 157 for us.
Where we were right and they were wrong
Our share for the first-named candidate next to the pick of each forecast or market that got the race wrong.
Silver Bulletin missed 4 races we called right, Polymarket 2 and Kalshi none.
| Race | Our forecast | Missed by | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada governorFord (D) vs. Lombardo (R) | 50.4% | Silver Bulletin: 50.0% (R) | 53.9%Called D |
| MO-02Frederick Wellman (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R) | 50.9% | Silver Bulletin: 49.4%Polymarket: Wagner 62% | 52.5%Called D |
| OH-15Don Leonard (D) vs. Mike Carey (R) | 50.9% | Silver Bulletin: 49.3%Polymarket: Carey 62% | 53.4%Called D |
| WI-01Mitchell Berman (D) vs. Bryan Steil (R) | 50.2% | Silver Bulletin: 50.0% (R) | 52.0%Called D |
Two more races could join this list. NC-14 and OH-10 haven't been called, but our pick leads the count in both, and Silver Bulletin and Polymarket favored the other side.
Where they were right and we were wrong
Read as above, with the picks that got the race right.
The reverse happened more often. Silver Bulletin got 12 of our misses right, Polymarket 11 and Kalshi 6.
| Race | Our forecast | Got it right | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa SenateTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R) | 49.2% | Silver Bulletin: 50.6% | 52.2%Called D |
| Kansas SenateHamilton (D) vs. Marshall (R) | 49.6% | Silver Bulletin: 51.1%Polymarket: Hamilton 53%Kalshi: Hamilton 51% | 52.6%Called D |
| FL-14Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R) | 49.5% | Silver Bulletin: 52.8%Polymarket: Castor 76% | 52.8%Called D |
| FL-22Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R) | 47.1% | Silver Bulletin: 51.5%Polymarket: Dandiya 74% | 51.9%Called D |
| FL-25Jared Evan Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R) | 48.3% | Silver Bulletin: 52.2%Polymarket: Moskowitz 81% | 52.4%Called D |
| IA-01Christina Bohannan (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | 48.1% | Silver Bulletin: 52.8%Polymarket: Bohannan 94%Kalshi: Bohannan 91% | 54.8%Called D |
| IA-02Lindsay James (D) vs. Joe Mitchell (R) | 47.9% | Silver Bulletin: 51.6%Polymarket: James 71% | 52.1%Called D |
| KY-06Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R) | 46.2% | Silver Bulletin: 50.3%Polymarket: Dembo 55% | 54.9%Called D |
| MT-01Samuel Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R) | 46.7% | Silver Bulletin: 50.9%Polymarket: Forstag 62%Kalshi: Forstag 59% | 52.9%Called D |
| TX-15Bobby Pulido (D) vs. Monica De La Cruz (R) | 46.0% | Silver Bulletin: 51.1%Polymarket: Pulido 89%Kalshi: Pulido 90% | 62.3%Called D |
| TX-28Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R) | 49.8% | Silver Bulletin: 55.0%Polymarket: Cuellar 93%Kalshi: Cuellar 93% | 69.0%Called D |
| TX-35Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | 49.8% | Silver Bulletin: 50.2%Polymarket: Garcia 72%Kalshi: Garcia 73% | 55.4%Called D |
Races everyone missed
Every forecast and market that listed them missed the South Carolina Senate race, the Texas governor's race and House seats AL-02, IN-05 and TX-23. All of them went to the Democrat.
Average miss per race
For each called race, we compare each forecast's share for the first-named candidate, the Democrat or the independent running against a Republican, with the share of the vote for the two main candidates they got. Markets only price who wins, so they're left out here.
| Foresight | Silver Bulletin | |
|---|---|---|
| Senate | 3.1 points | 2.8 points |
| Governors | 3.7 points | 3.0 points |
| House | 3.8 points | 3.3 points |
| All races | 3.8 points | 3.2 points |
Both forecasts had the Democratic side too low, ours by more. On average, our shares were 2.9 points too Republican and Silver Bulletin's 2.2.
Still being counted
The leader's margin is in points of all votes counted so far.
| Race | Ahead now | Foresight | Silver Bulletin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska governor | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) +19.9, 73% counted | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) |
| Alaska Senate | Peltola (D) +0.3, 74% counted | Peltola (D) | Peltola (D) |
| Kansas governor | Holscher (D) +0.5, 95% counted | Masterson (R) | Masterson (R) |
| Mississippi Senate | Tied, 97% counted | Hyde-Smith (R) | Hyde-Smith (R) |
| New Hampshire governor | Ayotte (R) +9.1, 59% counted | Ayotte (R) | Ayotte (R) |
Of the 65 House seats still being counted, the candidate ahead is our pick in 45 and Silver Bulletin's in 48.
Every Senate race
Missed races first, then races still being counted. Shares as above. Markets: the favorite and its price when we published.
| Race | Foresight | Silver Bulletin | Polymarket | Kalshi | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IowaTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R) | 49.2%Missed | 50.6% | Hinson 55%Missed | Hinson 56%Missed | 52.2%Called D |
| KansasHamilton (D) vs. Marshall (R) | 49.6%Missed | 51.1% | Hamilton 53% | Hamilton 51% | 52.6%Called D |
| South CarolinaAndrews (D) vs. Graham (R) | 48.2%Missed | 48.8%Missed | Graham 73%Missed | Graham 72%Missed | 52.3%Called D |
| AlaskaPeltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R) | 51.2% | 51.4% | Peltola 70% | Peltola 69% | 50.1%74% counted |
| MississippiColom (D) vs. Hyde-Smith (R) | 44.0% | 45.2% | Hyde-Smith 88% | Hyde-Smith 88% | 50.0%97% counted |
| AlabamaWess (D) vs. Moore (R) | 40.1% | 41.0% | Moore 99% | Moore 98% | 45.3%Called R |
| ArkansasShoffner (D) vs. Cotton (R) | 40.7% | 40.6% | Cotton 96% | Cotton 95% | 43.9%Called R |
| ColoradoHickenlooper (D) vs. Baisley (R) | 61.6% | 60.6% | Hickenlooper 99% | Hickenlooper 99% | 62.9%Called D |
| DelawareCoons (D) vs. Katz (R) | 60.3% | 63.3% | Coons 97% | Coons 98% | 63.6%Called D |
| Florida (special)Nixon (D) vs. Moody (R) | 46.4% | 47.3% | Moody 91% | Moody 89% | 48.5%Called R |
| GeorgiaOssoff (D) vs. Collins (R) | 54.5% | 55.9% | Ossoff 97% | Ossoff 97% | 59.0%Called D |
| IdahoAchilles (I) vs. Risch (R) | 38.1% | 39.4% | Risch 96% | Risch 100% | 37.3%Called R |
| IllinoisStratton (D) vs. Tracy (R) | 57.3% | 60.4% | Stratton 99% | Stratton 98% | 64.0%Called D |
| KentuckyBooker (D) vs. Barr (R) | 38.4% | 40.2% | Barr 98% | Barr 97% | 43.8%Called R |
| LouisianaDavis (D) vs. Letlow (R) | 46.5% | 46.0% | Letlow 90% | — | 49.1%Called R |
| MaineJackson (D) vs. Collins (R) | 52.9% | 52.0% | Jackson 69% | Jackson 68% | 53.9%Called D |
| MassachusettsMarkey (D) vs. Deaton (R) | 66.2% | 66.0% | Markey 99% | Markey 98% | 66.8%Called D |
| MichiganEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R) | 53.1% | 53.0% | El-Sayed 78% | El-Sayed 75% | 53.6%Called D |
| MinnesotaFlanagan (D) vs. Tafoya (R) | 53.8% | 54.2% | Flanagan 92% | Flanagan 90% | 55.2%Called D |
| MontanaBodnar (I) vs. Alme (R) | 45.1% | 43.8% | Alme 89% | Alme 100% | 44.2%Called R |
| NebraskaOsborn (I) vs. Ricketts (R) | 49.6% | 48.8% | Ricketts 69% | Ricketts 100% | 46.4%Called R |
| New HampshirePappas (D) vs. Sununu (R) | 55.2% | 55.2% | Pappas 93% | Pappas 92% | 54.8%Called D |
| New JerseyBooker (D) vs. Murphy (R) | 60.5% | 61.4% | Booker 99% | Booker 97% | 64.0%Called D |
| New MexicoLuján (D) vs. Marker (R) | 58.5% | 59.9% | Luján 99% | Luján 98% | 63.1%Called D |
| North CarolinaCooper (D) vs. Whatley (R) | 56.5% | 55.1% | Cooper 98% | Cooper 97% | 60.0%Called D |
| Ohio (special)Brown (D) vs. Husted (R) | 51.4% | 51.5% | Brown 71% | Brown 70% | 52.5%Called D |
| OklahomaThomas (D) vs. Hern (R) | 36.0% | 35.5% | Hern 98% | Hern 97% | 40.7%Called R |
| OregonMerkley (D) vs. Smith (R) | 60.0% | 62.9% | Merkley 99% | Merkley 98% | 58.3%Called D |
| Rhode IslandReed (D) vs. McKay (R) | 64.1% | 65.9% | Reed 99% | Reed 99% | 69.3%Called D |
| South DakotaBengs (I) vs. Rounds (R) | 41.5% | 42.5% | Rounds 94% | Rounds 100% | 39.5%Called R |
| TennesseeBradshaw (D) vs. Hagerty (R) | 37.9% | 37.6% | Hagerty 97% | Hagerty 97% | 43.8%Called R |
| TexasTalarico (D) vs. Paxton (R) | 51.2% | 51.9% | Talarico 72% | Talarico 71% | 55.2%Called D |
| VirginiaWarner (D) vs. Mizusawa (R) | 62.0% | 60.7% | Warner 99% | Warner 99% | 61.1%Called D |
| West VirginiaAnderson (D) vs. Capito (R) | 30.9% | 32.3% | Capito 99% | Capito 98% | 39.4%Called R |
| WyomingByrd (D) vs. Hageman (R) | 30.5% | 28.4% | Hageman 99% | Hageman 99% | 34.8%Called R |
Every governor's race
Sorted and read as above.
| Race | Foresight | Silver Bulletin | Polymarket | Kalshi | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NevadaFord (D) vs. Lombardo (R) | 50.4% | 50.0% (R)Missed | Ford 77% | Ford 75% | 53.9%Called D |
| TexasHinojosa (D) vs. Abbott (R) | 47.9%Missed | 48.9%Missed | Abbott 63%Missed | Abbott 62%Missed | 53.7%Called D |
| AlaskaKreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Wilson (R) | 58.6% | 62.5% | — | — | 62.7%73% counted |
| KansasHolscher (D) vs. Masterson (R) | 49.4% | 49.2% | Masterson 72% | — | 50.3%95% counted |
| New HampshireWarmington (D) vs. Ayotte (R) | 45.9% | 45.9% | Ayotte 94% | — | 45.4%59% counted |
| AlabamaJones (D) vs. Tuberville (R) | 43.9% | 44.6% | Tuberville 94% | Tuberville 93% | 47.9%Called R |
| ArizonaHobbs (D) vs. Biggs (R) | 54.3% | 55.1% | Hobbs 94% | Hobbs 91% | 56.6%Called D |
| ArkansasLove (D) vs. Huckabee Sanders (R) | 38.7% | 38.8% | Huckabee Sanders 98% | Huckabee Sanders 98% | 41.7%Called R |
| CaliforniaBecerra (D) vs. Hilton (R) | 61.5% | 61.7% | — | Becerra 97% | 64.0%Called D |
| ColoradoWeiser (D) vs. Marx (R) | 59.2% | 61.1% | Weiser 97% | Weiser 96% | 64.4%Called D |
| ConnecticutLamont (D) vs. Fazio (R) | 60.8% | 59.6% | Lamont 97% | Lamont 97% | 58.4%Called D |
| FloridaJolly (D) vs. Donalds (R) | 48.2% | 48.0% | Donalds 68% | Donalds 68% | 49.3%Called R |
| GeorgiaLance Bottoms (D) vs. Jackson (R) | 51.2% | 50.9% | Lance Bottoms 65% | Lance Bottoms 65% | 54.3%Called D |
| HawaiiGreen (D) vs. Cordery (R) | 65.0% | 70.5% | Green 99% | Green 97% | 74.7%Called D |
| IdahoPickens (D) vs. Little (R) | 35.8% | 37.6% | Little 98% | Little 98% | 36.1%Called R |
| IllinoisPritzker (D) vs. Bailey (R) | 60.0% | 61.3% | Pritzker 99% | Pritzker 97% | 64.2%Called D |
| IowaSand (D) vs. Lahn (R) | 52.9% | 54.0% | Sand 87% | Sand 84% | 55.5%Called D |
| MainePingree (D) vs. Charles (R) | 55.8% | 56.8% | Pingree 96% | Pingree 95% | 60.1%Called D |
| MarylandMoore (D) vs. Cox (R) | 68.0% | 65.8% | Moore 99% | Moore 98% | 65.3%Called D |
| MassachusettsHealey (D) vs. Minogue (R) | 64.8% | 63.2% | Healey 97% | Healey 97% | 65.0%Called D |
| MichiganBenson (D) vs. James (R) | 54.1% | 54.9% | Benson 94% | Benson 93% | 55.5%Called D |
| MinnesotaKlobuchar (D) vs. Demuth (R) | 55.4% | 57.8% | Klobuchar 98% | Klobuchar 96% | 56.5%Called D |
| NebraskaWalz (D) vs. Pillen (R) | 48.9% | 46.6% | Pillen 86% | Pillen 84% | 45.5%Called R |
| New MexicoHaaland (D) vs. Hull (R) | 55.6% | 57.2% | Haaland 96% | Haaland 94% | 57.3%Called D |
| New YorkHochul (D) vs. Blakeman (R) | 58.7% | 57.5% | Hochul 97% | Hochul 96% | 59.9%Called D |
| OhioActon (D) vs. Ramaswamy (R) | 51.7% | 52.5% | Acton 81% | Acton 79% | 54.1%Called D |
| OklahomaMunson (D) vs. Mazzei (R) | 42.7% | 45.0% | Mazzei 91% | Mazzei 90% | 46.9%Called R |
| OregonKotek (D) vs. Drazan (R) | 56.7% | 53.5% | Kotek 83% | Kotek 79% | 53.2%Called D |
| PennsylvaniaShapiro (D) vs. Garrity (R) | 61.4% | 61.6% | Shapiro 99% | Shapiro 98% | 60.9%Called D |
| Rhode IslandFoulkes (D) vs. Guckian (R) | 67.2% | 68.8% | Foulkes 99% | Foulkes 100% | 81.3%Called D |
| South CarolinaJohnson (D) vs. Wilson (R) | 45.1% | 44.0% | Wilson 93% | Wilson 92% | 47.7%Called R |
| South DakotaAhlers (D) vs. Rhoden (R) | 40.4% | 40.9% | Rhoden 97% | Rhoden 97% | 36.6%Called R |
| TennesseeGreen (D) vs. Blackburn (R) | 41.7% | 42.4% | Blackburn 95% | Blackburn 94% | 48.6%Called R |
| VermontJanoo (D) vs. Scott (R) | 47.8% | 49.5% | Scott 76% | Scott 76% | 46.6%Called R |
| WisconsinCrowley (D) vs. Tiffany (R) | 52.8% | 52.6% | Crowley 84% | Crowley 82% | 54.2%Called D |
| WyomingCasner (D) vs. Barlow (R) | 32.9% | 33.0% | Barlow 99% | Barlow 98% | 17.6%Called R |
House seats either forecast missed
The 16 called House seats that Foresight, Silver Bulletin or both got wrong, read as above.
| District | Candidates | Foresight | Silver Bulletin | Polymarket | Kalshi | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-02Held by D | Shomari Figures (D) vs. Rhett Marques (R) | 44.5%Missed | 48.5%Missed | Marques 55%Missed | — | 53.8%Called D |
| FL-14Held by D | Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R) | 49.5%Missed | 52.8% | Castor 76% | — | 52.8%Called D |
| FL-22Held by D | Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R) | 47.1%Missed | 51.5% | Dandiya 74% | — | 51.9%Called D |
| FL-25Held by D | Jared Evan Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R) | 48.3%Missed | 52.2% | Moskowitz 81% | — | 52.4%Called D |
| IA-01Held by R | Christina Bohannan (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | 48.1%Missed | 52.8% | Bohannan 94% | Bohannan 91% | 54.8%Called D |
| IA-02Held by R | Lindsay James (D) vs. Joe Mitchell (R) | 47.9%Missed | 51.6% | James 71% | — | 52.1%Called D |
| IN-05Held by R | J.D. Ford (D) vs. Victoria Spartz (R) | 44.3%Missed | 47.5%Missed | Spartz 83%Missed | — | 51.7%Called D |
| KY-06Held by R | Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R) | 46.2%Missed | 50.3% | Dembo 55% | — | 54.9%Called D |
| MO-02Held by R | Frederick Wellman (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R) | 50.9% | 49.4%Missed | Wagner 62%Missed | — | 52.5%Called D |
| MT-01Held by R | Samuel Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R) | 46.7%Missed | 50.9% | Forstag 62% | Forstag 59% | 52.9%Called D |
| OH-15Held by R | Don Leonard (D) vs. Mike Carey (R) | 50.9% | 49.3%Missed | Carey 62%Missed | — | 53.4%Called D |
| TX-15Held by R | Bobby Pulido (D) vs. Monica De La Cruz (R) | 46.0%Missed | 51.1% | Pulido 89% | Pulido 90% | 62.3%Called D |
| TX-23Held by R | Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs. Brandon Herrera (R) | 48.0%Missed | 49.7%Missed | Herrera 55%Missed | Herrera 56%Missed | 54.2%Called D |
| TX-28Held by D | Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R) | 49.8%Missed | 55.0% | Cuellar 93% | Cuellar 93% | 69.0%Called D |
| TX-35Held by D | Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | 49.8%Missed | 50.2% | Garcia 72% | Garcia 73% | 55.4%Called D |
| WI-01Held by R | Mitchell Berman (D) vs. Bryan Steil (R) | 50.2% | 50.0% (R)Missed | Berman 50% | Berman 51% | 52.0%Called D |
Results: unofficial counts and race calls from civicAPI as of 8:48 AM EST on November 4. A race counts once civicAPI calls it. Shares count only the votes for the two main candidates. Silver Bulletin's come from its projected vote shares, counted the same way. Silver Bulletin figures: FLIPR forecast (Deluxe version), November 2, 2026 update, from its Senate, House and governors forecasts. Market figures: each candidate's price on Polymarket and Kalshi on October 30 at 7:02 PM EDT, from their public price histories. Foresight figures: our forecast published October 30, 2026. See how our forecast did, the full forecast and how the two forecasts compared before the election.