2026 midterms
How our midterm forecast did
We don't have a model built for elections. Our forecast came from the same synthetic population we use for brand research, calibrated to the 2024 results, without a single 2026 poll.
Winners picked
96%
419 of 436 called races
Average miss
3.8 points
per race, on vote share
Synthetic voters surveyed
50,000
1,000 in each of 50 states
Results as of 8:48 AM EST on November 4. A race counts once it is called. Forecast published October 30, 2026.
Called right and missed
Called races are in the winner's color, and races not called yet are grey. Stripes mark the ones we called wrong.
Hover a state for the count and the forecast, click it for the race post.Tap a state for its race post.
Our scorecard
We picked the winner in 96% of the races called so far. Our Senate misses were Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina, and Texas was our only miss among governors. The other 13 were House seats. Every race we missed went to the Democrat.
| Called so far | Picked right | Average miss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 33 of 35 | 30 of 33 (91%) | 3.1 points |
| Governors | 33 of 36 | 32 of 33 (97%) | 3.7 points |
| House | 370 of 435 | 357 of 370 (96%) | 3.8 points |
| All races | 436 | 419 of 436 (96%) | 3.8 points |
The average miss compares our share for the first-named candidate in each race, the Democrat or the independent running against a Republican, with the share of the vote for the two main candidates they got. Our shares leaned Republican. On average we had the Democratic side 2.9 points too low.
How our odds held up
Called races by the rating we published, leaving out the 9 seats only one party could win.
When we were confident, we were right 99% of the time. Of the 383 called races we rated Likely or Safe, 379 went the way we said.
| Leader's chance in our forecast | Leader won | |
|---|---|---|
| Toss-up | 50 to 60% | 8 of 12 (67%) |
| Lean | 60 to 80% | 23 of 32 (72%) |
| Likely | 80 to 95% | 65 of 69 (94%) |
| Safe | 95% and up | 314 of 314 (100%) |
Leaders in Lean races, a 60 to 80% chance in our forecast, won 72% of the time, and those in Likely races, 80 to 95%, won 94%. In every group, leaders won at least as often as our odds said.
The races we missed
Our rating is the one we published. Shares are the first-named candidate's share of the vote for the two main candidates. Off by is our share minus the result, in points. Toss-ups first.
None of these 17 races was rated Safe in our forecast. We had 4 as toss-ups, 9 as Lean R and 4 as Likely R.
| Race | Our rating | Our forecast | Result | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas SenateHamilton (D) vs. Marshall (R) | Toss-up | 49.6% | 52.6%Called D | −3.0 |
| FL-14Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R) | Toss-up | 49.5% | 52.8%Called D | −3.3 |
| TX-28Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R) | Toss-up | 49.8% | 69.0%Called D | −19.1 |
| TX-35Johnny Garcia (D) vs. Carlos De La Cruz (R) | Toss-up | 49.8% | 55.4%Called D | −5.6 |
| Iowa SenateTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R) | Lean R | 49.2% | 52.2%Called D | −2.9 |
| South Carolina SenateAndrews (D) vs. Graham (R) | Lean R | 48.2% | 52.3%Called D | −4.1 |
| Texas governorHinojosa (D) vs. Abbott (R) | Lean R | 47.9% | 53.7%Called D | −5.9 |
| FL-22Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R) | Lean R | 47.1% | 51.9%Called D | −4.7 |
| FL-25Jared Evan Moskowitz (D) vs. Scott Singer (R) | Lean R | 48.3% | 52.4%Called D | −4.1 |
| IA-01Christina Bohannan (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | Lean R | 48.1% | 54.8%Called D | −6.7 |
| IA-02Lindsay James (D) vs. Joe Mitchell (R) | Lean R | 47.9% | 52.1%Called D | −4.2 |
| MT-01Samuel Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R) | Lean R | 46.7% | 52.9%Called D | −6.2 |
| TX-23Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs. Brandon Herrera (R) | Lean R | 48.0% | 54.2%Called D | −6.1 |
| AL-02Shomari Figures (D) vs. Rhett Marques (R) | Likely R | 44.5% | 53.8%Called D | −9.2 |
| IN-05J.D. Ford (D) vs. Victoria Spartz (R) | Likely R | 44.3% | 51.7%Called D | −7.4 |
| KY-06Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R) | Likely R | 46.2% | 54.9%Called D | −8.7 |
| TX-15Bobby Pulido (D) vs. Monica De La Cruz (R) | Likely R | 46.0% | 62.3%Called D | −16.3 |
Still being counted
The leader's margin is in points of all votes counted so far.
| Race | Ahead now | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska governor | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) +19.9, 73% counted | Kreiss-Tomkins (D) |
| Alaska Senate | Peltola (D) +0.3, 74% counted | Peltola (D) |
| Kansas governor | Holscher (D) +0.5, 95% counted | Masterson (R) |
| Mississippi Senate | Tied, 97% counted | Hyde-Smith (R) |
| New Hampshire governor | Ayotte (R) +9.1, 59% counted | Ayotte (R) |
Of the 65 House seats still being counted, the candidate ahead is our pick in 45.
Every Senate race
Missed races first, then races still being counted. Shares and Off by as above.
| Race | Our forecast | Result | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| IowaTurek (D) vs. Hinson (R) | 49.2%Missed | 52.2%Called D | −2.9 |
| KansasHamilton (D) vs. Marshall (R) | 49.6%Missed | 52.6%Called D | −3.0 |
| South CarolinaAndrews (D) vs. Graham (R) | 48.2%Missed | 52.3%Called D | −4.1 |
| AlaskaPeltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R) | 51.2% | 50.1%74% counted | +1.0 |
| MississippiColom (D) vs. Hyde-Smith (R) | 44.0% | 50.0%97% counted | −6.0 |
| AlabamaWess (D) vs. Moore (R) | 40.1% | 45.3%Called R | −5.2 |
| ArkansasShoffner (D) vs. Cotton (R) | 40.7% | 43.9%Called R | −3.1 |
| ColoradoHickenlooper (D) vs. Baisley (R) | 61.6% | 62.9%Called D | −1.3 |
| DelawareCoons (D) vs. Katz (R) | 60.3% | 63.6%Called D | −3.3 |
| Florida (special)Nixon (D) vs. Moody (R) | 46.4% | 48.5%Called R | −2.1 |
| GeorgiaOssoff (D) vs. Collins (R) | 54.5% | 59.0%Called D | −4.5 |
| IdahoAchilles (I) vs. Risch (R) | 38.1% | 37.3%Called R | +0.8 |
| IllinoisStratton (D) vs. Tracy (R) | 57.3% | 64.0%Called D | −6.7 |
| KentuckyBooker (D) vs. Barr (R) | 38.4% | 43.8%Called R | −5.4 |
| LouisianaDavis (D) vs. Letlow (R) | 46.5% | 49.1%Called R | −2.6 |
| MaineJackson (D) vs. Collins (R) | 52.9% | 53.9%Called D | −1.0 |
| MassachusettsMarkey (D) vs. Deaton (R) | 66.2% | 66.8%Called D | −0.6 |
| MichiganEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R) | 53.1% | 53.6%Called D | −0.4 |
| MinnesotaFlanagan (D) vs. Tafoya (R) | 53.8% | 55.2%Called D | −1.4 |
| MontanaBodnar (I) vs. Alme (R) | 45.1% | 44.2%Called R | +1.0 |
| NebraskaOsborn (I) vs. Ricketts (R) | 49.6% | 46.4%Called R | +3.2 |
| New HampshirePappas (D) vs. Sununu (R) | 55.2% | 54.8%Called D | +0.3 |
| New JerseyBooker (D) vs. Murphy (R) | 60.5% | 64.0%Called D | −3.5 |
| New MexicoLuján (D) vs. Marker (R) | 58.5% | 63.1%Called D | −4.7 |
| North CarolinaCooper (D) vs. Whatley (R) | 56.5% | 60.0%Called D | −3.6 |
| Ohio (special)Brown (D) vs. Husted (R) | 51.4% | 52.5%Called D | −1.1 |
| OklahomaThomas (D) vs. Hern (R) | 36.0% | 40.7%Called R | −4.7 |
| OregonMerkley (D) vs. Smith (R) | 60.0% | 58.3%Called D | +1.7 |
| Rhode IslandReed (D) vs. McKay (R) | 64.1% | 69.3%Called D | −5.2 |
| South DakotaBengs (I) vs. Rounds (R) | 41.5% | 39.5%Called R | +2.0 |
| TennesseeBradshaw (D) vs. Hagerty (R) | 37.9% | 43.8%Called R | −5.9 |
| TexasTalarico (D) vs. Paxton (R) | 51.2% | 55.2%Called D | −3.9 |
| VirginiaWarner (D) vs. Mizusawa (R) | 62.0% | 61.1%Called D | +0.9 |
| West VirginiaAnderson (D) vs. Capito (R) | 30.9% | 39.4%Called R | −8.5 |
| WyomingByrd (D) vs. Hageman (R) | 30.5% | 34.8%Called R | −4.3 |
Every governor's race
Sorted as above.
| Race | Our forecast | Result | Off by |
|---|---|---|---|
| TexasHinojosa (D) vs. Abbott (R) | 47.9%Missed | 53.7%Called D | −5.9 |
| AlaskaKreiss-Tomkins (D) vs. Wilson (R) | 58.6% | 62.7%73% counted | −4.0 |
| KansasHolscher (D) vs. Masterson (R) | 49.4% | 50.3%95% counted | −0.8 |
| New HampshireWarmington (D) vs. Ayotte (R) | 45.9% | 45.4%59% counted | +0.5 |
| AlabamaJones (D) vs. Tuberville (R) | 43.9% | 47.9%Called R | −4.0 |
| ArizonaHobbs (D) vs. Biggs (R) | 54.3% | 56.6%Called D | −2.2 |
| ArkansasLove (D) vs. Huckabee Sanders (R) | 38.7% | 41.7%Called R | −3.0 |
| CaliforniaBecerra (D) vs. Hilton (R) | 61.5% | 64.0%Called D | −2.5 |
| ColoradoWeiser (D) vs. Marx (R) | 59.2% | 64.4%Called D | −5.2 |
| ConnecticutLamont (D) vs. Fazio (R) | 60.8% | 58.4%Called D | +2.4 |
| FloridaJolly (D) vs. Donalds (R) | 48.2% | 49.3%Called R | −1.2 |
| GeorgiaLance Bottoms (D) vs. Jackson (R) | 51.2% | 54.3%Called D | −3.1 |
| HawaiiGreen (D) vs. Cordery (R) | 65.0% | 74.7%Called D | −9.7 |
| IdahoPickens (D) vs. Little (R) | 35.8% | 36.1%Called R | −0.4 |
| IllinoisPritzker (D) vs. Bailey (R) | 60.0% | 64.2%Called D | −4.2 |
| IowaSand (D) vs. Lahn (R) | 52.9% | 55.5%Called D | −2.7 |
| MainePingree (D) vs. Charles (R) | 55.8% | 60.1%Called D | −4.2 |
| MarylandMoore (D) vs. Cox (R) | 68.0% | 65.3%Called D | +2.6 |
| MassachusettsHealey (D) vs. Minogue (R) | 64.8% | 65.0%Called D | −0.1 |
| MichiganBenson (D) vs. James (R) | 54.1% | 55.5%Called D | −1.4 |
| MinnesotaKlobuchar (D) vs. Demuth (R) | 55.4% | 56.5%Called D | −1.1 |
| NebraskaWalz (D) vs. Pillen (R) | 48.9% | 45.5%Called R | +3.4 |
| NevadaFord (D) vs. Lombardo (R) | 50.4% | 53.9%Called D | −3.5 |
| New MexicoHaaland (D) vs. Hull (R) | 55.6% | 57.3%Called D | −1.6 |
| New YorkHochul (D) vs. Blakeman (R) | 58.7% | 59.9%Called D | −1.2 |
| OhioActon (D) vs. Ramaswamy (R) | 51.7% | 54.1%Called D | −2.4 |
| OklahomaMunson (D) vs. Mazzei (R) | 42.7% | 46.9%Called R | −4.2 |
| OregonKotek (D) vs. Drazan (R) | 56.7% | 53.2%Called D | +3.5 |
| PennsylvaniaShapiro (D) vs. Garrity (R) | 61.4% | 60.9%Called D | +0.5 |
| Rhode IslandFoulkes (D) vs. Guckian (R) | 67.2% | 81.3%Called D | −14.1 |
| South CarolinaJohnson (D) vs. Wilson (R) | 45.1% | 47.7%Called R | −2.7 |
| South DakotaAhlers (D) vs. Rhoden (R) | 40.4% | 36.6%Called R | +3.8 |
| TennesseeGreen (D) vs. Blackburn (R) | 41.7% | 48.6%Called R | −6.9 |
| VermontJanoo (D) vs. Scott (R) | 47.8% | 46.6%Called R | +1.2 |
| WisconsinCrowley (D) vs. Tiffany (R) | 52.8% | 54.2%Called D | −1.4 |
| WyomingCasner (D) vs. Barlow (R) | 32.9% | 17.6%Called R | +15.3 |
Results: unofficial counts and race calls from civicAPI as of 8:48 AM EST on November 4. A race counts once civicAPI calls it. Shares count only the votes for the two main candidates, the basis of our forecast, so they can differ from shares of all votes cast. Our forecast was published October 30, 2026. See the full forecast, the method and how our results compare with Silver Bulletin's.